Nigeria’s petrol landing cost fell by ₦69.45 per litre in three days, dropping from ₦1,384.82/litre on September 25 to ₦1,278.37/litre on September 28, according to the latest MEMAN report.
The movement reflects renewed volatility in the international oil market, with crude prices responding sharply to developments around the US-Iran conflict. Expectations of potential peace talks have helped ease some of the geopolitical premium in crude after US President Donald Trump earlier rejected an Iranian proposal, although uncertainty around supply flows remains high.
The underlying crude benchmarks remained volatile during the period. The seven-day average for Brent moved from $103.19/bbl on September 25 to $103.25/bbl on September 28, while WTI declined from $93.25/bbl to $92.79/bbl. Bonny Light also edged down from $120.92/bbl to $120.40/bbl.
The landing-cost calculation, however, goes beyond crude prices. The September 28 assessment is based on import parity into tank at ASPM & NPSC Jetty, Apapa, using international PMS benchmark prices, a 38,000MT cargo assumption, the CBN-weighted average NAFEM exchange rate, finance charges, freight, towage, berthing and mooring, cargo dues, contingency, fire coverage, agency fees, VAT, NPA, NIMASA and NMDPRA charges, among other applicable costs.
The seven-day average PMS import-parity cost also declined, from ₦1,383.92/litre on September 25 to ₦1,366.34/litre on September 28, a reduction of ₦17.58/litre. However, the sharper movement was recorded in the spot assessment, where the lower benchmark fell by ₦69.44/litre over the three-day period.
The lower landing-cost benchmark now sits below the September 29 Lagos depot prices: MRS Tincan at ₦1,332/litre, Emadeb at ₦1,325/litre and A.A. Rano at ₦1,324/litre. This puts the respective depot prices ₦53.63, ₦46.63 and ₦45.63 per litre above the ₦1,278.37/litre lower spot landing-cost benchmark.
The immediate direction of the landing cost will remain closely tied to international product prices, crude benchmarks, exchange-rate movements and freight and shipping conditions. For Nigerian downstream operators, the ₦69.45/litre decline is significant, but the continuing instability in global oil markets means the latest reduction should be viewed against a market that remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments.