Nigeria's petrol stock has risen to its highest level in months, offering improved supply security, but surging global crude oil prices and Dangote Refinery's transition to dollar-denominated product sales are increasing the likelihood of another fuel price increase.
According to the June 2026 Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) factsheet, the country's Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) stock sufficiency improved from 16.2 days in May to 19.7 days in June, while total petrol receipts increased to 50.6 million litres per day.
However, industry observers warn that the improved inventory may offer only temporary relief. Brent crude has now climbed above $90 per barrel following the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran, pushing up the cost of crude oil and imported refined products globally.
The pressure is being compounded locally by Dangote Refinery's decision to sell petroleum products in dollars, a move the refinery said became necessary because a larger share of its crude supply is now purchased under dollar-denominated arrangements. The policy has significantly increased marketers' replacement costs, with depot prices already responding to the higher pricing environment.
Although the Federal Government is currently in discussions with Dangote Refinery on expanding naira-based crude supply to support a return to naira product sales, industry players say any delay in reaching an agreement, combined with rising international crude prices, could trigger another round of petrol price increases despite the country's stronger fuel stocks.
For Nigerian consumers, the message is clear: while product availability has improved considerably, the combination of higher global oil prices and dollar-based domestic fuel transactions means price stability remains under significant threat.