Nigeria’s oil and gas industry recorded a year of recovery and repositioning in 2025, marked by stronger midstream activity, rising domestic refining capacity, and renewed upstream investment. While production remained below government targets, structural reforms, infrastructure progress, and improved market dynamics reshaped the sector’s trajectory.
Below is an itemised review of the industry’s performance across key segments in 2025.
1. Production Performance
Average crude oil production: 1.46 million barrels per day (bpd)
Total liquid production (including condensates): 1.66 million bpd
Crude output improved from early-year lows but remained below Nigeria’s 2025 budget benchmark of 2.062 million bpd. Operators continued to face constraints from infrastructure bottlenecks, security challenges, and natural field decline, despite gradual gains toward year-end.
2. OPEC Quota Compliance
Compliance level: Approximately 97%
Nigeria largely adhered to its OPEC production quota during the year. While compliance strengthened credibility within the producer group, it also highlighted structural limits to sustainably increasing output under current operating conditions.
3. NNPCL Operations and Financial Performance (2025)
Average crude and condensate production: ~1.60 million bpd
Peak 2025 production: 1.77 million bpd
Crude oil output: ~1.36 million bpd
Condensate output: ~0.24 million bpd
Natural gas production: ~6,968 mmscf/d
Gas sales (M-2 basis): ~4,650 mmscf/d
Crude and condensate sales: ~19.98 million barrels
Revenue: ₦4.358 trillion
Profit after tax: ₦502 billion
Statutory payments (Jan–Oct 2025): ₦12.117 trillion
Upstream pipeline availability: 100%
NNPC Limited recorded improved financial performance in 2025, supported by stable gas production, improved operational efficiency, and full upstream pipeline availability, which helped cushion periods of weaker crude output. Production peaked at 1.77 million bpd during the year, although average output settled lower due to ongoing field and infrastructure constraints.
Gas production remained relatively resilient, peaking at 7,722 mmscf/d in July, before moderating in the second half of the year. Financial results reflected sustained cash generation, with all figures reported as provisional and subject to reconciliation under NNPCL’s ongoing post-commercialisation reporting framework.
4. Domestic Refining and Market Impact
Dangote Refinery nameplate capacity: 700,000 bpd
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery reshaped downstream market dynamics in 2025. Its ramp-up significantly reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported refined products and intensified price competition among NNPCL and independent marketers. Domestic supply conditions improved, while fuel import volumes declined.
5. Midstream and Upstream Activity: Infrastructure Progress and Investment Recovery
AKK Gas Pipeline: Mainline welding and pressure testing completed
Project completion level: About 90%
OB3 Gas Pipeline availability: 96%
Midstream infrastructure recorded notable progress during the year. The Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano (AKK) Gas Pipeline advanced toward completion, positioning it for phased commissioning, while the Obiafu–Obrikom–Oben (OB3) Gas Pipeline maintained high availability, supporting domestic gas transportation and power-sector offtake.
Total oil rig count (October 2025): 69 (up from 8 in 2021)
Active rigs: 40
On standby: 8
On warm stack: 5
On cold stack: 4
On the move: 12
Upstream activity rebounded strongly. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) approved multiple Field Development Plans (FDPs) across onshore, shallow-water, and marginal fields. The sharp increase in rig count and deployment reflected renewed investor confidence, supported by incremental capital inflows, targeted drilling programmes, and improved regulatory clarity under the Petroleum Industry Act.
Industry Outlook
Overall sentiment: Cautious optimism
Key needs: Infrastructure investment, governance discipline, sustained reforms
Industry stakeholders broadly described 2025 as a year of recovery and repositioning. Future gains will depend on improved security conditions, additional FPSOs and production facilities, consistent policy execution, and deeper institutional and fiscal reforms across the value chain.