Nigeria Loses 3.33 Million Barrels to Crude Oil Theft in 2025 – NUPRC

Nigeria recorded approximately 3.33 million barrels of crude oil theft in 2025, with nearly two-thirds of the reported volume occurring in the fourth quarter, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

The figure, contained in the commission’s 2025 annual report released on Thursday, highlights the scale of crude oil losses recorded during the year, despite ongoing efforts to strengthen production security and improve output from the country’s upstream sector.

The quarterly breakdown shows that reported crude oil theft stood at 896,471 barrels in the first quarter. The second quarter recorded a negative 200,400 barrels, which the commission described as an excess volume arising from reconciliation. Reported losses then increased to 440,434 barrels in the third quarter before rising sharply to 2.19 million barrels in the fourth quarter.

The fourth-quarter figure represented approximately 66 per cent of the annual total, making it the period with the highest reported volume of crude oil theft in 2025.

Nigeria produced 541.08 million barrels of crude oil and blended condensate during the year, based on the quarterly figures in the report. Production increased from 132.70 million barrels in the first quarter to 137.69 million barrels in the second quarter, before easing to 137.45 million barrels in the third quarter and 133.23 million barrels in the fourth quarter. Unblended condensate production added another 48.52 million barrels.

Beyond the production and theft figures, the NUPRC reported progress in processing field development plans intended to expand Nigeria’s upstream capacity. The commission processed 75 applications in 2025, comprising 58 received during the year and 17 carried forward from 2024. Of these, 48 were approved, 10 rejected and 17 remained under processing at year-end.

The approved projects are expected to develop about 1.75 billion barrels of oil reserves, 104.48 million barrels of condensate reserves and 8.19 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves. They are also projected to add 743,830 barrels of oil per day, 23,707 barrels of condensate per day and 3.09 billion standard cubic feet of gas per day to production capacity.

According to the commission, the approved projects are expected to achieve first oil between 2026 and 2030. Seven of the 48 approved plans are focused exclusively on non-associated gas development.

The report comes amid continued scrutiny of Nigeria’s efforts to curb crude oil theft and improve production. In August 2026, Tony Elumelu said the country’s oil production losses had declined from 97 per cent before President Bola Tinubu assumed office in 2023 to 2 per cent as of June 2026, according to Nairametrics. Elumelu had previously raised concerns in March 2022, when he said Nigeria was losing more than 95 per cent of some oil production to theft.

For 2026, the Federal Government’s budget is based on crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day and an oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel. However, OPEC data cited in the report put Nigeria’s average crude oil production at 1.505 million barrels per day since July 2026, below the budget assumption.

The latest figures reinforce the importance of sustained efforts to secure production infrastructure, reduce crude losses and accelerate the development of approved fields. While the NUPRC’s projected additions offer significant potential for higher output, delivering those volumes will depend on the timely execution of the development plans.