Nigeria's oil and gas industry deferred approximately 42.55 million barrels of crude oil and condensate in 2025, with the affected volumes carrying an estimated market value of $2.97 billion, as pipeline outages, terminal disruptions and operational challenges continued to restrict production.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) disclosed this in its 2025 annual report, which put average daily production deferment at 116,563 barrels throughout the year.
The figure represents crude oil and condensate that operators were unable to produce or evacuate according to schedule because of disruptions affecting pipelines, production facilities, export terminals and other infrastructure.
Although some deferred barrels may be recovered through subsequent production, prolonged disruptions can reduce immediate export volumes and delay revenue inflows to oil companies and the government.
The commission identified outages on three major export pipelines, the Trans Niger Pipeline, Nembe Creek Trunk Line and Trans Forcados Pipeline, as the most prevalent causes of production deferment during the year.
It also attributed the disruptions to technical and operational difficulties, scheduled maintenance and delays involving vessel and tanker loading at terminals, which forced operators to shut in production from affected wells.
An examination of the monthly figures shows that production deferment fluctuated significantly, with October recording the highest average daily volume of 172,761 barrels, while July had the lowest at 25,780 barrels.
October's daily deferment was 146,981 barrels higher than July's, representing an increase of approximately 570.1 percent and reflecting the sharp deterioration in production availability between the two months.
March also recorded a high average daily deferment of 169,856 barrels, followed by December at 169,786 barrels and November at 169,340 barrels.
The monthly data showed that the industry deferred 76,002 barrels per day in January, before the figure increased to 134,793 barrels in February, representing a 77.4 percent rise.
The situation worsened in March, when daily deferment climbed by approximately 26 percent to 169,856 barrels, with the affected production assigned an estimated value of $391.76 million, the highest monthly amount reported.
Daily deferment subsequently moderated to 113,132 barrels in April and 102,480 barrels in May. It fell further to 55,445 barrels in June and reached its lowest point of 25,780 barrels in July.
However, the improvement did not last. Deferment rose to 95,639 barrels per day in August and 115,081 barrels in September before reaching the annual peak of 172,761 barrels in October.
The October figure translated to approximately 5.36 million barrels of deferred production during the month, with an estimated market value of $354.54 million.
Production constraints remained elevated in the final two months of the year, with daily deferment averaging 169,340 barrels in November and 169,786 barrels in December. December's figure was approximately 123.4 percent above January's level.
The estimated $2.97 billion value of the year's deferred production was calculated using the monthly average prices of Nigeria's Bonny Light crude grade and the corresponding volumes affected.
United Capital's 2025 Economic Review and 2026 Outlook put the average Bonny Light price at $70.88 per barrel in 2025, compared with $82.40 in 2024, representing a decline of approximately 14 percent.
However, the estimated value should not be interpreted as confirmed revenue lost by the Federal Government or oil producers. It represents the indicative gross market value of the affected barrels, some of which could be recovered and produced at a later date.
The production deferment figures also highlight a challenge distinct from crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism. While theft involves the illegal removal of petroleum from production and transportation systems, deferment occurs when operational or infrastructure constraints prevent producers from extracting or evacuating scheduled volumes.
The distinction is significant for Nigeria's production outlook because improving output requires not only addressing crude theft and security threats but also ensuring that pipelines, terminals, loading facilities and production equipment remain operational.
The NUPRC's findings therefore point to persistent infrastructure and operational bottlenecks as major constraints on the country's ability to maximise crude oil and condensate production.
