Nigeria’s depot petroleum market enters the new week under fresh price pressure after Brent crude climbed to $107.20 per barrel, raising the prospect of higher product replacement costs following a broad decline in depot prices between Monday, September 21 and Friday, September 25.
As of 10:30 a.m. WAT on Monday, Brent crude was up $2.92, or 2.80 percent, at $107.20 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose $2.27, or 2.46 percent, to $94.68.
The rebound followed US President Donald Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal for a seven-day truce linked to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, reversing some of the optimism that had pushed oil prices below $100 last week.
Iran has maintained that it will not soften its conditions for reopening the strategic waterway, keeping uncertainty around crude and petroleum-product flows through the route.
The latest crude movement could put Nigerian depot owners under pressure to review prices this week if the increase is sustained and raises their replacement costs.
However, the potential increase comes against the backdrop of a weaker depot market recorded last week.
According to a Petroleumprice.ng market report covering September 21–25, depot prices declined across the major coastal markets, with PMS falling across monitored locations and AGO easing at most depots.
In Lagos, the average PMS price across monitored depots fell by ₦23.50 per litre, while the average AGO price declined by about ₦35.64 per litre during the five-day period.
Pinnacle’s PMS price dropped from ₦1,350 to ₦1,325.50 per litre, while MRS Tincan fell from ₦1,352 to ₦1,332. Sahara recorded the largest Lagos PMS reduction, moving from ₦1,351 to ₦1,325.
The Lagos PMS average consequently declined from ₦1,351 to ₦1,327.50 per litre between Monday and Friday, leaving the Friday average ₦2.50 per litre above Dangote Refinery’s revised ₦1,325 per litre gantry price.
Lagos AGO recorded a wider movement.
Eterna’s price fell by ₦100 per litre, from ₦1,950 to ₦1,850, while Rain Oil declined from ₦1,950 to ₦1,900. Integrated and Duport each moved from ₦1,820 to ₦1,790, while Ibachem dropped from ₦1,815 to ₦1,790 and Ibeto from ₦1,815 to ₦1,800.
Pinnacle was virtually unchanged, moving marginally from ₦1,850 to ₦1,850.50 per litre.
The Lagos AGO average consequently fell from about ₦1,860 to ₦1,824.36 per litre.
Warri also recorded lower PMS prices during the period.
Matrix declined from ₦1,327 to ₦1,316 per litre, Nepal from ₦1,330 to ₦1,315, while Keonamex fell from ₦1,330 to ₦1,316.
Rain Oil’s AGO price in Warri dropped from ₦1,950 to ₦1,910 per litre.
In Port Harcourt, Masters and TSL each reduced their PMS prices from ₦1,330 to ₦1,303 per litre, while Bulk Strategic’s AGO price fell from ₦1,928 to ₦1,890.
Calabar also recorded declines, with Alkanes reducing its PMS price from ₦1,327 to ₦1,310 per litre and Soroman moving from ₦1,330 to ₦1,325.
Despite the broad declines, pricing remained uneven across the coastal markets.
By Friday, some depot owners in Port Harcourt and Warri were selling PMS below Dangote Refinery’s price, while some Lagos depots were quoting AGO below the refinery-linked level. PMS prices in Calabar and Port Harcourt were also below the Dangote-linked price.
Marketers linked to Dangote were quoting ₦1,325 per litre for PMS and ₦1,850 for AGO as of Friday.
The reversal in the international crude market is now shaping the new-week outlook.
Brent fell below $100 last week as markets responded to expectations of possible US-Iran diplomatic progress and a potential reopening of Hormuz. The benchmark has since rebounded above $107 following the rejection of Tehran’s proposal.
For Nigerian depot operators, a sustained rise in crude prices could increase the cost of replacing existing stocks, particularly for products already trading close to or below refinery-linked prices.
This could create room for fresh depot price adjustments during the week, although the extent and timing would depend on the direction of crude prices, product availability, exchange-rate movements and individual replacement costs.
The market therefore begins the week from a lower depot-price base recorded between September 21 and 25, while renewed international crude pressure creates the potential for a reversal in petroleum-product prices.